01 / What changed
The newer the product, the more likely it is to never sell at all.
This is every listing in the Central Okanagan over the last 24 months, sorted by the year the building went up. The bar is the share that came off the market without a sale, cancelled or expired. Change the product type and watch what happens at the top of the ladder.
Failure rate by build vintage
02 / Price your product
Set your unit. Then move your price until the odds turn.
Pick the sub-area, the size, the mix, and the vintage you are competing against. The failure meter is built from what actually happened to real listings at that price relative to their market, not from an opinion about where the market is headed.
03 / The inventory nobody counts
Your competition is not just what is listed today.
Most feasibility work counts active listings and stops. It misses the units that were listed, failed, and got pulled. Those owners did not stop wanting to sell. They are waiting for a better market, which is exactly the market you are about to launch into.
What your unit is up against
Send me the site. I will run it properly.
Give me an address or a PID and I will come back with the comparable sales, the active competition, the failed listings sitting in the wings, and a unit mix and price schedule I would be comfortable taking to a lender. No cost, no obligation.
Email me this scenariomark@sellingokanagangroup.com
What this is, and what it is not.
Nobody can predict the future, and this tool does not try to. It does not forecast prices, interest rates, migration, construction costs, or policy. What it does is measure what already happened: which listings sold, which ones failed, at what price relative to their own market, and how long each took. From that it estimates the likelihood that a given product at a given price meets the same fate as the listings that came before it. Likelihood is not certainty. A well-marketed project with the right timing can beat these odds, and a poorly timed one can do worse.
Modelled on freehold sold, cancelled, and expired MLS records for apartments, townhomes, and half duplexes in Kelowna, West Kelowna, Lake Country, Peachland, Rutland, and Westbank. Big White, leasehold, and Westbank First Nation leasehold are excluded because they price on a different basis. Sold data current to July 31, 2026. Sub-areas with thin sample sizes are flagged in the output. This is market context for planning purposes. It is not an appraisal, a pro forma, a financing document, or a guarantee of sale price. Verify all assumptions independently before committing capital.
